ISSN 1004-4140
    CN 11-3017/P

    基于CT影像组学的列线图模型预测肺内磨玻璃结节生长趋势

    Prediction of Growth Trend of Pulmonary Ground-glass Nodules Based on CT Radiomics-based Nomogram Model

    • 摘要: 目的:探讨基于CT影像组学的列线图模型预测肺内磨玻璃结节(GGN)生长趋势的临床价值。方法:回顾性纳入2014年1月至2024年12月CT表现为肺内GGN患者340例。根据生长标准分为稳定组224例和生长组116例。记录患者临床资料集影像特征。按7︰3随机划分为训练集和测试集。基于Lasso筛选的11个影像组学特征,以及单因素-多因素筛选的临床-影像特征,使用5折交叉验证建立逻辑回归列线图模型。通过曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)分别评估模型的预测性能、校准度和临床实用性。结果:训练集和测试集的AUC值(95%CI)分别为0.950(0.922~0.978)和0.964(0.926~1)。模型的敏感度、特异性、准确率和F1分数分别为:训练集0.889、0.898、0.895和0.852;测试集0.857、0.925、0.902和0.857。校准曲线和DCA显示模型分别具有较好的拟合度和临床实用性。结论:基于CT影像组学的列线图模型能够有效预测肺内GGN的生长趋势,预测性能稳定可靠,该模型可为临床GGN个体化随访管理提供参考,对稳定GGN可采用常规随访方案,对高生长风险GGN则应加强动态监测、及时评估干预指征,为GGN精准诊疗与规范化管理提供可靠的影像学依据。

       

      Abstract: Objective: To explore the clinical value of a CT radiomics-based nomogram model in predicting the growth trend of pulmonary ground-glass nodules (GGNs). Methods: A retrospective study was conducted involving 340 patients with pulmonary GGNs identified on CT images from January 2014 to December 2024. Based on growth criteria, patients were divided into a stable group (224 cases) and a growth group (116 cases). Clinical data and imaging features were recorded. The dataset was randomly split into training and testing sets in a 7︰3 ratio. A logistic regression model combined 11 radiomic features selected using Lasso and clinical-imaging features filtered through univariate and multivariate analyses. Model performance, calibration, and clinical usefulness were assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. Results: The AUC values (95% CI) for the training and testing sets were 0.950 (0.922-0.978) and 0.964 (0.926-1), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and F1 score of the model were 0.889, 0.898, 0.895, and 0.852, respectively, for the training set and 0.857, 0.925, 0.902, and 0.857, respectively, for the testing set. The calibration curve and DCA showed that the model exhibited good fit and clinical practicality. Conclusion: The CT radiomics-based nomogram model can effectively predict the growth of pulmonary GGNs with stable and reliable predictive performance. The model can provide a reference for individualized follow-up management of GGNs in clinical practice. Routine follow-up protocols can be adopted for stable GGNs, whereas enhanced dynamic monitoring and timely evaluation of intervention indications should be implemented for GGNs with high growth risk, thereby offering a reliable imaging basis for precise diagnosis, treatment, and standardized management of GGNs.

       

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