ISSN 1004-4140
CN 11-3017/P

基于CT影像组学列线图预测Ⅰ-Ⅲ期结直肠癌术后无病生存期

Prediction of postoperative disease-free survival in stage I–III colorectal cancer using a CT-based radiomics nomogram

  • 摘要: 目的:探讨CT影像组学列线图在Ⅰ-Ⅲ期结直肠癌(CRC)患者根治术后无病生存期(DFS)预测中的价值。方法:回顾性纳入324例接受根治性手术的CRC患者,按照7:3分为训练队列和验证队列。采用最小绝对收缩与选择算子Cox回归算法选择相关的CT影像组学特征。运用Cox回归分析挑选出具有临床意义的风险因素,并融合影像组学特征,最终构建了综合列线图。利用C指数、校准曲线和决策曲线评估列线图的预测性能,采用Kaplan-Meier法估算DFS。结果:基于3个临床风险因素(病理N分期、周围神经侵犯、KRAS突变)构建临床模型,其C指数在训练队列、验证队列中分别为0.709(95% CI:0.678~0.740)、0.696(95% CI:0.644~0.748)。在保留的15个影像组学特征和3个临床风险因素的基础上构建了列线图。列线图在两个数据集中的C指数分别为0.820(95% CI: 0.799~0.841)、0.818(95% CI: 0.775~0.861)。结果表明列线图预测效能优于临床模型。校准曲线显示列线图预测值与观察值之间具有良好一致性。决策曲线分析表明列线图在临床应用中具有更大的净收益。结论:构建的综合列线图在I-III期CRC患者术后DFS的个体化预测中表现出较高的区分度、良好的校准度和更大的净收益。它在验证队列中保持了稳健的预测性能,并优于临床模型。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To investigate the value of a computed tomography (CT) radiomics nomogram for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with stage I–III colorectal cancer (CRC) after radical surgery. Methods: Overall, 324 patients with CRC who underwent radical surgery were retrospectively included and grouped into training and validation cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression algorithm was employed to select the relevant CT radiomics features. Using Cox regression analysis, clinically significant risk factors were identified and combined with radiomics features to develop a comprehensive nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the C-index, calibration curves, and decision curves, with DFS probabilities estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results: A clinical model was constructed based on three clinical risk factors: pathological N stage, perineural invasion, and KRAS mutation. We achieved a C-index of 0.709 (95% confidence interval CI: 0.678–0.740) in the training cohort and 0.696 (95% CI: 0.644–0.748) in the validation cohort. A nomogram was subsequently developed using the 15 retained radiomics features along with these three clinical risk factors. The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive performance, with a C-index of 0.820 (95% CI: 0.799–0.841) in the training cohort and 0.818 (95% CI: 0.775–0.861) in the validation cohort, thus outperforming the clinical model. Calibration curves indicated good agreement between the predicted and observed DFS. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the greater net benefit of the nomogram in clinical applications. Conclusion: The constructed integrated nomogram demonstrated high discriminative ability, good calibration, and greater net benefit in the individualized prediction of postoperative DFS in patients with stage I–III CRC cancer. It maintained a robust predictive performance in the validation cohort and outperformed the clinical model.

     

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