Objective To explore the independent risk factors and predictive efficacy of ANC conversion to encapsulated necrosis (WON). Methods: A Retrospective analysis of CT/MRI features in 53 cases of ANC, divided into the WON and absorption groups, based on the outcome after 4 weeks of ANC formation. The chi square test or t-test were used to compare the statistical significance of differences in etiology and laboratory tests between the two groups. Regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors affecting the outcome of ANC. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to obtain the area under the curve (AUC) and evaluate the predictive efficacy of each risk factor for the outcome of ANC to WON.

Results Logistic regression analysis showed that the P-values for necrotic volume ≥ 30% and MCTSI score > 6 were both < 0.05, with OR values of 9.21 and 16.04, respectively. ROC curve analysis showed that the P-values for necrotic volume ≥ 30% and MCTSI score> 6 were both < 0.05, with AUC values of 0.86 and 0.88, respectively.

Conclusion Necrosis volume ≥ 30% and MCTSI score > 6 points are independent risk factors for the progression of ANC into WON, and the predictive performance of both is significant.