ISSN 1004-4140
CN 11-3017/P

基于人工智能和CT征象构建磨玻璃结节肺腺癌的预测模型及验证

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for Lung Adenocarcinoma with Ground Glass Nodules Using AI Quantitative Parameters and CT Signs

  • 摘要: 目的:基于AI定量参数和CT征象构建磨玻璃结节(GGN)肺腺癌的预测模型,并探讨模型的预测价值及进行验证。方法:回顾性收集我院术后病理明确的GGN患者225例,符合纳入标准的GGN 共261 枚,按8∶2随机拆分为训练集和验证集。根据病理结果将GGN分为腺体前驱病变组和腺癌组,比较训练集中两组的AI定量参数和CT征象的差异性,运用多因素logistic回归筛选GGN肺腺癌的独立危险因素,构建预测模型及绘制列线图。采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)下面积(AUC)、校准曲线和临床决策曲线(DCA)评估模型的预测性能,验证集对模型进行验证。结果:Kappa检验显示两名主治医师对CT征象的观察一致较好。训练集和验证集基线分析显示,两者各变量均无统计学差异。训练集中,经单因素、多因素分析显示分叶征(OR=3.147,95% CI:1.303~7.601)、空泡征(OR=2.563,95% CI:1.109~5.922)、血管异常征(OR=3.551,95% CI:1.545~8.164)、长径(OR=1.154,95% CI:1.014~1.312)、平均CT值(OR=1.006,95% CI:1.003~1.009)是GGN肺腺癌的独立危险因素,预测模型在训练集和验证集的AUC分别为0.901(95% CI:0.859~0.943)和0.896(95% CI:0.810~0.983),具有较好的区分度,均优于单个独立危险因素。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示模型在训练集和验证集中均具有较好的拟合度;DCA曲线显示模型具有较好的临床适用性。结论:基于AI定量参数和CT征象构建的GGN肺腺癌预测模型具有较好的预测性能,可以为临床决策提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Objective: We aimed to develop a predictive model for lung adenocarcinoma with ground glass nodules (GGNs) based on artificial intelligence (AI) and computed tomography (CT) features, and to evaluate the model’s predictive value. Methods: A total of 261 GGNs from 225 patients diagnosed after surgery at our hospital were retrospectively collected and randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in an 8:2 ratio. The GGNs were classified into preneoplastic lesions and adenocarcinoma groups based on pathological results. AI-derived quantitative parameters and CT signs from the training set were compared between the two groups, and independent risk factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression. A predictive model and nomogram were developed, and model performance was assessed through the area under the ROC curve (AUC), calibration curve, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). The model was subsequently validated using the validation set. Results: Kappa test indicated good agreement between the two attending physicians in their assessment of CT signs. Baseline analysis revealed no statistical differences between variables in both training and validation sets. In the training set, lobulation sign (OR=3.147, 95% CI: 1.303-7.601), vacuole sign (OR=2.563, 95% CI: 1.109-5.922), vascular abnormalities (OR=3.551, 95% CI: 1.545-8.164), long diameter (OR=1.154, 95% CI: 1.014-1.312), and mean CT value (OR=1.006, 95% CI: 1.003-1.009) were identified as independent risk factors for adenocarcinoma in GGN after univariate and multivariate analysis. The predictive model constructed based on this information showed good discrimination ability, with an AUC of 0.901 (95% CI: 0.859-0.943) in the training set and an AUC of 0.896 (95% CI: 0.810-0.983) in the validation set, significantly outperforming individual risk factors. The Hosmer-lemeshow test demonstrated good model fit in both sets and DCA showed its strong clinical applicability. Conclusion: The model based on AI and CT signs demonstrated good predictive performance for GGN lung adenocarcinoma, providing valuable insights for clinical decision-making.

     

/

返回文章
返回